Netanyahu's Dilemma: What to do about those bad polls?

Picture this: An Israeli Prime Minister, after years of delay, starts a sudden two-week offensive against Iran, culminating in a US strike on Iran's primary nuclear facility. Visualize a situation where that series of IDF attacks decapitates the command of much of the Iranian armed forces, destroying anti-aircraft facilities, and achieving total command of the air, dealing a profound blow to Iran’s nuclear and missile programs.

The IDF achieves its aim without the loss of any aircraft or military personnel. Imagine Israel intercepted all the drones and most of the missiles Iran fired at it. Public morale absorbs the tragedy of 28 civilian deaths, mourns, and moves on. The physical damage to Israel's home front is likely to be repaired within one to two years, although the damage to our science establishments is still being assessed.

Is it conceivable that such a Prime Minister would struggle in the polls? It is indeed hard to believe, but there it is. Netanyahu enjoyed a modest boost in support in the immediate aftermath of the successes against Iran. However, that bump disappeared a few days later. As the Times of Israel reported on July 2: "Just 40 percent of the public has trust in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to a survey published Wednesday by the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) think tank."

The danger of an Iranian nuclear bomb makes the success of Israel in the Iran campaign perhaps the most critical Israeli military achievement since the Six-Day War. Netanyahu's career ambition, according to many on the right, culminated in this win. For that reason, his poll numbers' stagnation is surprising.

What is happening? Three possibilities suggest themselves.

First, the polls may not make sense because they are incorrect. As we all know from bitter experience, methods vary and often do not reflect reality.

Second, the polls are correct. However, if Israel signs a ceasefire with Hamas, which looks like a victory and includes substantial achievements like the return of hostages and Hamas leadership agreeing to exit Gaza, Netanyahu's public support will rise.

Third, the polls are correct, and Netanyahu is in deep trouble.

The Prime Minister’s support has shown long-term stability at low numbers, in polls from different institutes, using different methods ever since Oct. 7th. Therefore, in my view, the third possibility is most likely correct.

Perhaps the current negotiation of a Gaza ceasefire will yield another short-term boost, but it seems unlikely that it will alter the overall picture. Benjamin Netanyahu enjoys the unconditional support of ‌just one-third of the voting population. No poll has shown his current coalition garnering enough votes to form a government after the next elections.

Netanyahu, whatever other characteristics he exhibits, is no quitter. He is no doubt looking at his situation, analyzing it, and setting an alternative course. What we may expect is a program of cautious outreach to his opposition.

To continue in office since the debacle of Oct. 7, Netanyahu has depended on his base. Likud voters are famously loyal. The Likud has never ousted a party leader. Beyond his Likud base, Netanyahu depends on the Haredi parties and the far right to maintain his coalition. Coalition discipline has been impressive, in part because his coalition members share awareness of their weakness in the polls.

Another component that Netanyahu builds on is perceived weakness among those who oppose him. Israel does not vote directly for the PM. The winner is the politician who can put together a parliamentary coalition. However, one-on-one matchups where possible candidates for PM are polled relative to Netanyahu, are often indicators of a leader’s chances. Netanyahu usually beats his relatively lackluster rivals. Even in that limited context, support for him as the preferred PM ranges from just 33-41%, depending on the rival.

Maintaining his coalition comes with costs. Netanyahu has made concessions to his Haredi partners related to releasing yeshiva students from the draft. These alienate non-Haredi secular and religious voters who take part in the country’s defense.

Many voters will not forget that Netanyahu’s pre-war assault on the authority of the Supreme Court may have contributed to Hamas’ decision to attack. His "judicial initiative," limits the ability of the Supreme Court to check and balance legislative/executive power without offering reforms to introduce balances in place of those removed. Many Israelis saw his initiative as an attempt to undermine Israeli democracy. Opposition led to extraordinary demonstrations. In addition, there is his trial for corruption, and a general sense that after almost eighteen years in office, it is time to move on. Altogether, Netanyahu faces significant obstacles to re-election.

The only way he can succeed in the next election is by attracting voters who disdain him. Shifting a sufficient number of voters to support him, his party, and whatever coalition he can put together will be a great challenge since, currently over 70 percent of voters tell pollsters they want him to leave politics.