Thank you for your kind words:

In the aftermath of the first anniversary of October 7th, consider the unthinkable: what happens after the Western Alliance collapses?

Writing in a special edition of Britain’s Jewish Chronicle, marking the anniversary of October 7th, Prime Minister Keir Starmer said:

Beautiful words. Do you wonder whether Keir used them in his “diplomatic conversations” with his Foreign Secretary David Lammy, who froze about 10% of Britain’s weapons transfers to Israel, based on these weasel words?

BBC reports that he clarified with the full courage of his (lack of) convictions:

Another fast-talking Western leader, Emmanuel Macron, offered this gem:

Standup comedy from the French President: “We” need to stop delivering arms that “we” are not delivering to begin with.

These “profiles in courage” illustrate a severe problem the West creates when it deals with outright aggression from authoritarian states (Russia) or terror groups (Hamas/Hezbollah). Ukraine’s experience with Western allies is similar to Israel’s, like riding a roller coaster. You can end up nauseated by the ups and downs.

The future looks challenging. Start with the positive side of the equation. A Harvard estimate suggests that the US supported Israel’s war effort with $17.9 billion in equipment, financing, and funding. That level of support should be inspiring in terms of building the US-Israel future. (For Israelis, our government has a whole set of questions to answer: How did it come to pass that we were in such a deficit in our military warehouses that we needed so much foreign assistance?)

However, the way the Americans did it, the consistent pressure for a ceasefire that made no military sense, prolonged the war while people were dying. It raised suspicions of internal American party-partisan interests. Deeply rooted security misconceptions about the value of military victory joined Biden’s political considerations, causing him to waver and intervene to block or delay Israeli initiatives in Gaza and South Lebanon. 

Looking ahead, Harris uses advisors Philip Gordon and Ilan Goldenberg, whose record on the Middle East shows a deep commitment to the accommodationist Iran policies that created our current tragedy; Walz suggested that the antisemitism-infested anti-Israel student demonstrators were “speaking out for all the right reasons.” What can we expect from a Harris Administration?

On the other hand, Trump’s repugnant cozying up to Putin offers no alternative to the Democrats. He will sell out the Ukrainian people and expect Ukrainians to thank him. His support for Israel depends on his mood and unsteady relationship with Netanyahu.

Overall, trends do not look favorable toward Israel. Looking beyond the current election, consider that a recent Harvard/Harris poll found that 51% of Americans between 18-24:

Too large a segment of young America expresses outright support for the slaughter of Jews. Historic precedent suggests that this prejudice is not something most of them will outgrow. The opinions expressed, and relevant social media manipulations will likely impact future American policy.

The Americans are going through a crisis, boding ill for their ability to function effectively internally and on the world stage. Internally, their individualistic capitalism generates unprecedented wealth for 1% of the population while most Americans languish. In foreign affairs, for a generation, America’s conduct oscillated between the unwise but frighteningly effective (e.g., their invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan) and the inept (e.g., their exits from both countries). Their “step on the gas, step on the brakes” practice of supporting allies cost untold numbers of lives in the Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah and the Ukraine-Russia wars. Perhaps it is time for America’s allies to take seriously the assumption that American support is not necessarily reliable.

We see signs of this awakening. America’s refusal to allow Ukraine to use American weapons against strategic military targets inside Russia drove the Ukrainians to produce their ballistic missile. Israel appears to have moved against Hezbollah without an American OK.

Israel faces the challenge of weaning itself from American military subsidies and bearhugging. For two generations, we depended mainly on American products to fight wars. This dependence gives them leverage over us, which they often fail to use wisely. The problem goes far beyond military equipment. Israel needs to seriously consider a future in which America is an unreliable foreign power. Two salient facts help to clarify how difficult this challenge will be.

First, since the 1930s, even before there was a State of Israel, the US has been the foreign lodestar in Israel’s navigation of its international affairs. Losing that North Star will be wrenching and dangerous for Israel. 

Second, the largest Diaspora community, at least 80% of the world’s non-Israeli Jews, lives in the US. Our strong relationship with America helped strengthen the American Jewish community while they helped shape Israel. That relationship will perhaps require painful adjustment.

In short, beautiful words are cheap. The test of allies is the test of action. Is it still possible for America and the West to repair the damage? Will they?